Special Two Week Report: March 31st – April 12th

By: Quinnipiac University's Economics Research Team, Tyler Culp

Photo by Chris Liverani on Unsplash

CEE Stock Exchanges INDEX Analysis

Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index.

This week’s analysis includes a combination graph of the past two weeks. The biggest mover was the Slovakian SAX index which started off strong but fell by nearly 4% from its April 1st starting level, or nearly 6% from its peak on April 5th. The Polish WIG also started strong with a 2% gain early in April but returned to its initial level by the end of our analysis. The Hungarian BUX (and Czech PX) followed the opposite path with a slow start and ending higher by about 2.5% (and 2% for Czech).

Historical Analysis

Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and minus one standard deviation for the same three-month period, respectively.

Compared to its 3-month average, the Slovakian SAX remained above its historical upper bound (1 standard deviation above the average) for the entire week even though during the second week the stocks decreased then plateaued. The Czech PX remained close to its historical upper bound before finish the week above it. The Polish WIG began the week relatively close to is historical upper bound then sharply increasing before ending the week just above their historical upper bound. The Hungary BUX started the week close to its historical upper bound before finishing the week about it. Finally, after weeks of a return to normal levels the Romanian market remained very close to the historical upper bound.

The Data

Note: Grey coloring indicates market date that was not available. The value used is either the previous day’s value or the following day’s value. The data was also collected from Sunday to Friday due to Poland and Hungary reporting those days.