• Rajan Doering

Quick Look Series: November Exchange Rates Analysis

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli

Throughout the month of November, Central and Eastern European currencies experienced a variety of exchange rate shifts, as related to the Euro. Overall, the value of the Czech Koruna, the Hungarian Forint, and the Polish Zloty strengthened throughout the month, which is in-line with trends from the end of October. However, the Romanian Leu maintained a steady exchange rate throughout the month and increased very slightly.

Starting with the Czech Republic’s Koruna and Poland’s Zloty, these currencies experienced nearly identical movement throughout the previous month. These trends depict a continuous decline in each currency’s exchange rate, thus strengthening its monetary value relative to the Euro. This was via a steep, negative sloping curve in the beginning of the month, which was quickly followed by a plateau leading into the middle of November. However, this stagnant behavior was temporary, for their exchange rates continued declining following the 16th of November. These declines resulted in the Koruna’s exchange rate falling by 0.993 and reaching a low of 26.138 Koruna per Euro. Similarly, Zloty’s exchange rate fell by 0.1379 and reached a low of 4.4639 Zloty per Euro. With this, the value of the Koruna and the Zloty are becoming progressively stronger.

The Hungarian Forint tells a mildly different story than that of the Koruna or the Zloty. As evident from the graph, the currency experienced a steep decline in its exchange rate throughout the first week of November when it fell by 11.04 Forints to a monthly low of 355.2 Forints per Euro. However, the similarities stopped on November 12th, as identified via the curve’s inflection point, at which point the currency began to weaken. This upward curve continuously bowed throughout the month until reaching another inflection point in late November at which point the exchange rate started to fall again. However, the currency ended the month at an exchange rate of 359.59 Forints per Euro, which is 6.65 Forints less than its initial exchange rate. Although the currency’s exchange rate fluctuated throughout the month, November trends show the Forint is becoming progressively stronger.

In strong contrast to the first three currencies, the Romanian Leu tells a different story. Despite experiencing an initial mild decline, the Leu’s exchange rate sharply rose only a few days into November. This curve indicates the exchange rate climbed from a low rate of 4.8648 Leu early in the month to a peak of 4.8743 Leu per Euro on November 26th. Despite beginning to mildly decline following that date, the exchange rate strengthen over the month. Trends indicate the currency will likely continue mildly weakening throughout December, given the Leu’s small margin of change.

Lastly, these exchange rate trends can be analyzed via their percentage changes. Regarding the Forint, Koruna, and Zloty, this diagram illustrates similar curves to those in their exchange rate graphs. Additionally, these curves show the Forint’s exchange rate declined by 1.8%, the Koruna’s exchange rate declined by 3.46%, and the Zloty’s exchange rate declined by 2.84% throughout November. However, the Leu’s percentage change curve is dissimilar to its exchange rate graph, for it depicts a small rise in its exchange rate throughout the month. This is because its exchange rate increases by 0.12%, which is an exceptionally minute increase. Due to the small magnitude of those changes, the currency’s behavior suggests it will maintain a steady exchange rate for the foreseeable future, at least relative to the moves in other currencies.