Quick Look Series: March Exchange Rates Analysis

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli

In the final month of Quarter one, the Euro exchange rates of Central and Eastern European currencies experienced a variety of changes. The Czech Koruna (CZK) and Hungarian Forint (HUF) closed the month at exchange rates nearly equal to their opening values. The Polish Zloty (PLN) and the Romanian Leu (RON) currencies weakened throughout March. This report provides a glimpse into the unique behavior of their respective exchange rates during the past month.

The Czech Koruna experienced a unique trend throughout March. Opening the month at an exchange rate of CZK 26.142, the currency continued its weakening trend from February throughout early March. The Koruna’s exchange rate peaked at CZK 26.417 on March 8th, after which it began to decline. The currency fell and closed the month at a rate of CZK 26.143, which is only CZK 0.001 greater than its opening value. This month’s movement illustrates very modest overall trends but with some weakening.

Similar to the Koruna, the Hungarian Forint’s exchange rate continuously increased throughout the first half of March. Opening at HUF 362.86, the exchange rate peaked at HUF 368.18 on March 18th. That was also an inflection point for the currency before it closed the month at a value of HUF 363.27. This closing rate is HUF 0.42 greater than its opening value, indicating the currency weakened moderately throughout March. Although the past month illustrates negative trends, future patterns throughout April are difficult to predict.

Similar to its trends in late February, the Polish Zloty’s exchange rate consistently weakened throughout March. Opening at an exchange rate of PLN 4.5263, the currency’s exchange rate increased in a near-linear fashion before closing at an exchange rate of PLN 4.6508. This positive trend indicates the Polish Zloty weakened throughout the month, which falls in line with its trends from February.

Lastly, the Romanian Leu’s exchange rate primarily weakened throughout March, as illustrated by the positive sloping curve. Opening at RON 4.8749, the currency’s exchange rate continuously increased before plateauing from March 10th to March 22nd. Following that period, the exchange rate rose until the end of the month. As previously mentioned, these trends illustrate the currency is weakening over time.