Quick Look Series: March 8–12 Exchange Rates Analysis

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli

Exchange rates of Central and Eastern European currencies experienced large changes throughout the second week of March. Despite the volatility, the value of these currencies, as related to the Euro, ultimately strengthened at the end of the week.

Starting with the Czech Koruna, the currency opened the week at a high of CZK 26.417. Following this, the Koruna’s value consistently declined before closing at an exchange rate of CZK 26.15. This change of CZK 0.267 is a greater decline than typical recent weekly changes. Additionally, this negative-sloping behavior differs from the previous trends, for the rate had been increasing for several weeks.

Throughout the past week, the Hungarian Forint’s exchange rate also declined. The movements were much more volatile than the Koruna. Opening at an exchange rate of HUF 367.19, the currency reached a weekly high of 367.48 on Wednesday, March 10th, and a weekly low of HUF 365.88 the following day. Despite a mild increase in its exchange rate following this minimum point, the currency weakened on the week. The Forint’s exchange rate has noticeably declined for the first time since late January.

Turning to the Polish Zloty, the currency also experienced a variety of changes throughout the week. Opening at a value of PLN 4.6002, the Zloty’s exchange rate declined for the majority of the week. On Wednesday, March 10th, the Zloty reached its weekly low at a value of PLN 4.5752 before ultimately increasing after this point. This change in the currency’s exchange rate also breaks from recent historical trends, which generally illustrate the currency weakening against the Euro.

Lastly, the Romanian Leu’s exchange rate also deviated from its previous weekly trends. Opening the week at an exchange rate of RON 4.8852, the Leu initially climbed until falling and closing the week at RON 4.8850. While the CEE currencies saw a reversal of their recent activity, they continued to have a fair amount of correlation across each other.