Quick Look Series: January Exchange Rates Analysis
By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli
With the start of the New Year, the exchange rates of Central and Eastern European currencies experienced various changes against the Euro. Most currencies closed the month with their exchange rates reaching monthly highs. However, the Czech Koruna consistently strengthened against the Euro throughout the month meaning its exchange rate fell.
The Czech Koruna experienced mild changes in early January, with a steady increase from CZK 26.141 to a peak of CZK 26.19 on January 14th, a total change of CZK 0.049. These changes were quickly followed by consistent declines in the exchange rate, falling to a monthly low of CZK 26.02. With this fall in exchange rate, the CZK’s monetary value consistently strengthened throughout the latter half of January. If the currency continued moving in that direction, the Koruna would fall to an exchange rate below CZK 26.00, which has not occurred since the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.
The Hungarian Forint illustrates a more volatile trend given the “peaks and valleys” of its exchange rate. In the beginning of the month, the Forint’s exchange rate remained between HUF 359.5 and HUF 360.0, swinging between different values within this range. The Forint then rose to its monthly high with an exchange rate of HUF 360.39 on January 15th. This was followed by a sharp decline in the Forint’s exchange rate to a monthly low of HUF 357.33 on January 22nd. However, this monthly low was followed with a spike in the Forint’s exchange rate, which then fluctuated between HUF 358.39 and HUF 360.90 in the final days of January.
The Polish Zloty’s exchange rate, despite initially strengthening, sharply rose for the majority of January. At the start of the New Year, the Zloty’s exchange rate fell from PLN 4.5475 to a monthly low of PLN 4.4998 on January 7th, a total change of PLN 0.0477. This was quickly followed by a climbing exchange rate, which peaked at a rate of PLN 4.552 towards the end of January. These trends illustrate the Zloty’s exchange rate will likely continue weakening.
Lastly, the Romanian Leu’s exchange rate consistently weakened throughout the previous month. Despite experiencing an initial mild decline, the Leu’s exchange rate sharply rose a few days into January. This curve indicates the exchange rate increased from its lowest rate of RON 4.8705 and closed the month at a rate of RON 4.8750. These trends reveal a mild weakening of the currency relative to the Euro.