Quick Look Series: February Exchange Rates Analysis

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli

With the start of the New Year, the exchange rates of Central and Eastern European currencies experienced a variety of changes, as related to the Euro. Most currencies finished with their exchange rates reaching monthly highs towards the end of the period.

Starting with the Czech Koruna, the currency experienced a parabolic relationship. The currency’s exchange rate initially declined in the first half of the month, falling to a low of CZK 25.682, then sharply climbed for the remainder of the month. Such increases resulted in the Koruna closing the month at an exchange rate of CZK 26.195, above the aforementioned historical CZK 26.00 exchange rate.

The Hungarian Forint broke from its previous trends, illustrated from the consistently positive sloping curve depicted above. The Forint began the month at an exchange rate below HUF 356 per Euro. After that, the Forint continuously rose over the next four weeks and finished at its monthly high exchange rate of HUF 361.43. These trends illustrate the weakening of the currency, shown by an increase in Forints per Euro. Additionally, these continuous positive trends are dissimilar to those from previous months, given there is less volatility and inconsistency in the Forint’s exchange rate throughout the month.

Similarly to January, the Polish Zloty’s exchange rate initially strengthened against the Euro in early February until its exchange rate sharply rose in the latter half of the month. The Zloty’s exchange rate fell from PLN 4.508 to a monthly low of PLN 4.4761 on February 9th. For the rest of the month, the Zloty saw an upswing to the closing rate of PLN 4.5186. The currency has weakened for multiple months in a row now.

Lastly, the Romanian Leu’s exchange rate primarily weakened throughout most of February, illustrated by the generally positive sloping curve. The Leu began the month at an exchange rate of RON 4.8735 and climbed to a monthly high exchange rate of RON 4.876 on February 16th. Following this, the Leu’s exchange rate fell and closed the month at RON 4.8750. These trends illustrate the weakening of the currency against the Euro that has gone on for some time now.