Quick Look Series: February 8th – 12th Exchange Rates Analysis

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli

Heading into the middle of February, the Euro exchange rates of Central and Eastern European currencies continued breaking from their previously established trends. That was evident with the Hungarian Forint, the Polish Zloty, and the Romanian Leu. The first two currencies weakened throughout the week, while the Leu closed the last couple of days by sharply strengthening its value. However, the Czech Koruna continued strengthening, similarly to previous trends.

Starting with the Czech Koruna, this currency maintained its negative trends from previous weeks. Despite opening at an exchange rate of CZK 25.975, the Koruna’s exchange rate climbed to a weekly high of CZK 25.835 on Wednesday, February 10th. However, this sudden spike in its exchange rate was temporary, for it gradually fell in the latter half of the week to a closing rate of CZK 25.753. Such historical trends of the Koruna bode well for the currency, indicating it will continue strengthening.

The Hungarian Forint illustrates a break from last week’s trends, ultimately mirroring those observed throughout January 2021. Starting at a rate of HUF 358.33, the Forint’s exchange rate slightly rose before falling to a value of HUF 357.18 on Thursday, February 11th. This negative behavior in the Forint’s exchange rate was temporary, for it quickly spiked to a value of HUF 358.87 the following day. Similar to previous observations, these trends reaffirm the Forint’s volatility in the market.

Similar to the Hungarian Forint, the Polish Zloty’s exchange rate mirrors its trends from January 2021. Starting at a rate of PLN 4.4824, the Zloty’s exchange rate declined slightly before rising throughout the remainder of the week. The Zloty’s exchange rate closed the week at a value of PLN 4.4999. This positive behavior indicates the Polish Zloty may continue weakening, similarly to the general trends of this past January.

Unlike the prior currencies, the Romanian Leu’s exchange rate declined this past week, thereby strengthening its value relative to the Euro. Despite experiencing a mild climb in value during the beginning of the week, the Leu fell from RON 4.8753 on Tuesday, February 9th to RON 4.8745 on Thursday, February 11th; a net change of RON -0.0008. That was then followed by a slight increase to an exchange rate of RON 4.8746 on Friday, February 12th. Despite experiencing marginal changes, differing weekly changes throughout the first half of February provide an unclear picture about the currency’s behavior for the remainder of the month.


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