Quick Look Series: February 15th – 19th Exchange Rates Analysis

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli

Over the last week, the exchange rates of Central and Eastern European currencies deviated from their previous trends. That was evident with all euro exchange rates in the region. The Czech Koruna began weakening, the Hungarian Forint and the Polish Zloty started strengthening, and the Romanian Leu experienced a range of changes.

Starting with the Czech Koruna, this currency’s exchange rate against the euro progressively increased throughout the first half of the month. Beginning the week at an exchange rate of CZK 25.682, the Koruna climbed to a weekly high of CZK 25.883 on Wednesday, February 17th. That was quickly followed by a mild fall to a low point of CZK 25.849 on Friday, February 19th. Despite this mild deviation from historic trends, the Koruna will likely continue remaining below an exchange rate of CZK 26.

The Hungarian Forint also breaks from last week’s trends, forming a hill-like pattern with its exchange rate movement. Opening at a rate of HUF 358.15 per Euro, the Forint’s exchange rate rapidly weakened, with the exchange rate rising to a value of HUF 359.03 on Wednesday, February 17th. The currency then dropped to close the week at HUF 358.5 on Friday, February 19th. This negative behavior in the Forint’s exchange rate was temporary, for it quickly spiked to a value of HUF 358.87 the following day. As with some previous observations, these trends reaffirm the Forint’s volatility in the market through its consistent changes in earlier months.

As with the Hungarian Forint, the Polish Zloty’s exchange rate followed a hill-like trend throughout the previous week. Starting at a rate of PLN 4.4864, the Zloty’s exchange rate rose to a weekly high value of PLN 4.5012 on Wednesday, February 17th. That was followed by a decline in the exchange rate, with the currency closing the week at a low point of PLN 4.483. Given this recent behavior, the direction of Polish Zloty’s exchange rate is difficult to predict for the remainder of February.

Lastly, the Romanian Leu’s exchange rate experienced a variety of changes, ultimately increasing in value against the Euro at the end of the week. Beginning the week at an exchange rate of RON 4.8753, the Leu climbed to a weekly high of RON 4.876 on Tuesday, February 16th. That was shortly followed by a fall to a weekly low of RON 4.875 on Wednesday, February 17th. Afterwhich the currency progressively weakened, ultimately closing at a value of RON 4.8758 on Friday, February 19th. Despite the small changes, current trends in the Romanian Leu fall in-line with patterns observed throughout the first half of February and earlier.


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