July 2021 Exchange Rates Analysis

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Nicholas Ciampanelli

The exchange rates of Central and Eastern European currencies largely rose during the early July period until declining for the remainder of the month, strengthening these currencies relative to the Euro. Broadly speaking, the Hungarian Forint (HUF), the Polish Zloty (PLN), and most notably the Romanian Leu (RON) weakened throughout the beginning of the month. Opposing this, the Czech Koruna’s (CZK) exchange rate remained largely stagnant for this time period. All the currencies, however experienced a decline in their exchange rates (a strengthening) late in the month.

Starting with the Czech Koruna, the currency opens the quarter at an exchange rate of CZK 26.67 to the Euro, remaining near this exchange rate for the duration of early-July. It was not until the middle of the month the Koruna began strengthening, ultimately closing the month at an exchange rate of CZK 26.175, a net decline of CZK 0.495.

The Hungarian Forint’s exchange rate increased in early-July. This is evident from beginning the month at an exchange rate of HUF 354.5, rising to a monthly maximum of HUF 355.48 on July13th. Following this, the Forint’s exchange rate fell and closed the month at HUF 344.95. Given this net change of HUF 10.53, there was a significant strengthening during July, relative to the Euro.

Similarly, the Polish Zloty’s exchange rate increased throughout early-July until falling for the remainder of the month. This is evident from the Zloty opening at an exchange rate of PLN 4.4583 and weakening until July 16th, reaching a maximum exchange rate of PLN 4.4928. This was followed by the exchange rate falling and closing the month at a rate of PLN 4.4034. Despite this being minor changes within the exchange rate, these are substantially small changes for the currency over the course of only one month.

Lastly, the Romanian Leu’s exchange rate fell in-line with those of the other currencies in the region. This is observed from the Leu opening the month at an exchange rate of RON 4.8366, followed by sharply increasing to an exchange rate of RON 4.8443 in mid-July. This was followed by the currency’s exchange rate falling to RON 4.8315 at the end of the July, there by experiencing a net strengthening throughout the month

The relative magnitude of the currencies’ changes are easier to see when presented together in percentage change terms. The two most immediately notable series are those for the Romanian Leu (least change) and the Hungarian Forint (most change).Regarding the Romanian Leu, this currency experienced minimal changes from the beginning of the month given the currency’s value had a drop of only of 0.01 Leu throughout the month, less than half of a percentage change. However, the Czech Koruna, the Hungarian Forint, and the Polish Zloty experienced more noticeable changes throughout early-July, with changes becoming further pronounced towards the end of the month. This is evident from the Zloty strengthening by-1.23%, the Koruna’s exchange rate falling by-1.86%, and the Forint declining by-2.69%. While all currencies strengthened relative to the Euro, the Hungarian Forint strengthened the most during July.