By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Michael Szwaja
This is the first in a series of short analyses looking at Consumer Prices (CPI) in Central Europe. We start with the CPI in Poland. The CPI is an important because it provides us a sense of how changes in the prices of goods and services purchased/acquired by households. The combined CPI analyzed here is Eurostat’s Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) for Poland, based on 12 subgroups of consumption expenditure (according to the so-called COICOP-classification), and detailed metadata. The above plot tracks the CPI monthly from the past 11 months, November 2019-September 2020.
The graph clearly shows that the CPI gradually increased until April then spiked significantly until June. Since that time, it has more or less settled around 136. Since the beginning near 132, the Polish CPI has increased about 3%, even with the pandemic started earlier this year which lowered some prices but raises others, so the overall effect is generally unclear. On the other hand, the pandemic may have played a role in diminishing the increasing trend which seems evident in the last four months with data (June-September).