CEE Weekly Exchange Rate Analysis Week of March 25th, 2019 – April 5th, 2019

By: Quinnipiac University's Economics Research Team, Bryan Doherty


CURRENCY INDEX

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Currencies are each local currency per Euro and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the week.

The trend for the weeks of March 25 – April 5 was similar to that of the previous week. Among the four central European countries’ currencies being observed, the Czech koruna, Polish zloty and Romanian leu saw their respective currencies strengthen in comparison to the Euro. The Hungarian forint was the only currency to weaken, posting a 1.23% increase in relation to the Euro.


HISTORICAL TRENDS


Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Currencies are each local currency per Euro. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and minus one standard deviation for the same three-month period.

Once again, the Hungarian forint is a currency to watch going forward. The forint was the only currency to lose value in comparison with the Euro. It’s 1.23% increase places the forint just below the upper bound of its three-month average. With speculation of the Hungarian inflation rate rising higher than its target mark, the forint could be on its way to its weakest value of the year.


The Data: Currency Values Per Euro

Source: Eurostat and author’s own calculations.



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