By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
The first few days of September saw the US market’s biggest drop since June. Since then the S&P trended steadily downward and is no longer above its pre-outbreak level. This comes after it was as much as six percent above where it was back in February. The Slovakian SAX, which had a brief stint above its February level jumped back to nearly five percent above where it was seven months ago. The Romanian BET has been rallying along with the SAX while the other three CEE markets are still stuck in a downtrend.
Over the last few weeks the WIG 20, PX, and BUX seem to be following the US downward while the UK FTSE, SAX, and BET are making gains. The PX and WIG 20 haven’t been this low since May, and the BUX is at its lowest point since April. These are worrying developments in so far as they indicate negative expectations about the future, but all three indices have been falling pretty steadily so it’s more of a forced realization than a shock. Going forward the pandemic situation and high level of uncertainty will likely continue to shape markets for months to come.
The last two weeks were very interesting for stock markets in Central Europe. The Slovakian SAX surged nearly ten percent after a couple months without much movement. The Romanian BET closed up two percent making it the only other CEE index in positive territory. The Polish WIG 20 fell one and a half percent, the Hungarian BUX lost just about two and a half percent, and the Czech PX dropped just over three percent. The UK FTSE gained a very solid three and a half percent. The most surprising development was the US S&P coming in at the very bottom of the range of CEE indices with a loss of over three percent.