By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
A strong couple of weeks for the US S&P has it back about three percent above its pre-outbreak level and close to its highpoint around the end of August. The Slovakian SAX was mostly flat and is now about two and a half percent below where it was in mid-February. The Romanian BET is now down about thirteen percent after being as close as seven percent below its pre-outbreak level only a few weeks ago. The Hungarian BUX is down over twenty five percent. The Czech PX, Polish WIG 20, and UK FTSE are very tightly grouped, all down just over twenty percent.
The three-month snapshot for CEE markets does not look extremely promising. The Romanian BET has made some solid gains but has been giving them back over the last four weeks. The Slovakian SAX is positive as well but is also now trending downwards. The BUX, WIG 20, and PX have been losing ground fairly steadily. The S&P meanwhile has been volatile but is still up a decent amount, and the UK FTSE has been slowly falling. Much of these stock market losses come as coronavirus cases entered a new period of exponential growth so that will be the main issue to monitor. Government action to stop the spread via lockdown or other business restrictions would likely have major impacts on the markets as well.
All CEE stock markets were outpaced by the US S&P over the last two weeks. The Czech PX was the only one to finish in positive territory. All CEE indexes besides the Slovakian SAX ticked up on Friday, but not enough for any others to book a gain. The Polish WIG 20 fell about two and a half percent. The Romanian BET dropped a bit over one percent, and the Slovakian SAX and Hungarian BUX lost about three quarters of a percent. The UK FTSE tracked the CEE markets pretty closely and finished up about a quarter of a percent. The US S&P rose four percent after being up over five and a half percent at one point early in the last week.