By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
After a huge rally around the beginning of November, CEE stock markets continued to drift upwards. They are still significantly below the US market. However, the situation is markedly better compared to mid-October. The last month saw the strongest rally for stock markets since the initial bounce back from the March lows. Outside of the Slovakian SAX, the different CEE indices are behaving very similarly. The US recovery has been fairly linear. The S&P is now roughly seven percent above where it was in February. The bulk of the CEE markets are still more than ten percent below where they were before the pandemic began.
The S&P, WIG 20, BUX, PX, and FTSE are all at or near three-month highs. The SAX is about five percent below where it was in February and has been going up and down for months. The BUX, WIG, PX, and FTSE and all down about 13% and have been moving pretty closely together the whole time. The BET has consistently outperformed that group and is down about eight percent. The last month has reversed the trend in a huge way. However, COVID cases are still rising in many countries. The probability of lockdown measures continues to grow, and the severity of the economic impact is trending upwards as well. This is creating a unique situation where both optimism for a vaccine and the reality of the immediate dangers are rising at the same time.
The past two weeks were very positive for stock markets in Central Europe. After enormous gains earlier in November, markets continued to trend upwards. At the front of the pack, the Czech PX gained just over six percent. The Polish WIG 20 rose just under six percent. The Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX both climbed just over four percent. The Slovakian SAX finished up just a fraction of a percent. Most of the collective gains came in the first week while the second week was largely flat. The US S&P rose around three percent and the UK FTSE fell right in line with the SAX, up about a quarter of a percent.