By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
The last two weeks were overall very good for the Central European indices as well as the US and UK benchmarks. The Polish WIG 20 rose nearly ten percent from two weeks ago and outpaced all other CEE indices. The Romanian BET and Slovakian SAX had very similar weeks with both gaining slightly less than eight percent. The Hungarian BUX finished right in the middle of the US and UK with a gain of roughly five and a half percent. Rounding out the group, the Czech PX rose just under four percent. All indices rose over the two weeks with three of the five outperforming the gains of the US S&P and UK FTSE which climbed just over six and just under five percent respectively.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. This graph shows the performance of each index with the reference date of February 17th.
After a strong performance the past week, the Slovakian SAX is the first index to break its pre-crisis level. After a pretty flat month, the rest of the CEE indices have jumped a bit as well. The BET is less than 15% off its pre-crisis level. On the other end, Hungary now has the worst performing of the index, still down over 20% during this crisis period. The Polish WIG 20 and Czech PX are slightly better off with about 18% losses. The UK FTSE has been very close to the CEE indices throughout this period and is about level with the PX in relation to pre-crisis levels. The US S&P is outpacing all but Slovakia and is now only down slightly more than 10%.
The CEE had a strong couple of weeks which pushed their recovery along. Whether or not that was one of the ups and downs to be expected along a fairly flat trend or if it was a sign of an accelerating uptrend remains to be seen. The correlation across indices is still pretty apparent with the relative highs and lows coming on the same days but at different levels as each country responds to similar news in its own way.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The first graph shows the previous week’s performance. The remaining graphs show the three-month performance of each of the indices.
Author's Note: The index calculation (first graph) has been changed to reflect movement over the weekend and during Monday. The reference point for the indices is now Friday’s closing price.