By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index.
Note: The index calculation has been changed to reflect movement over the weekend and during Monday. The reference point for the indices is now Friday’s closing price.
Performance this past week was mostly poor with the Slovakian SAX posting the only gain. The second best performing index, the Romanian BET, was up early in the week but still finished down around three quarters of a percent. Hungarian BUX and Polish WIG 20 had very similar weeks with both losing around two percent. While the Czech PX fared slightly better it still followed a similar day to day path and finished down about a percent and a half. The US S&P lost heavily early in the week and closed down just over two percent. All CEE indices outperformed the US S&P and the UK FTSE even if only by a fraction of a percent.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. This graph shows the performance of each index with the reference date of February 17th.
The Slovakian SAX is now barely more than five percent off its pre-crisis level. As for the remaining CEE indices things still have not gotten much better over the last month. Even the US S&P 500 and UK FTSE have really leveled off after a poor showing last week. The CEE indices are grouped fairly tightly still with all of them down between about 19% in the case of the Romanian BET and 26% in the case of the Polish WIG 20. For comparison’s sake, the BET is closer to the US S&P in terms of recovery than it is to the Polish WIG 20 or Hungarian BUX.
There is a fairly clear pattern emerging across most of the indices. At this point the story seems to be a sudden crash of, in most cases, over 30% followed by a pretty quick bounce back where just over half the losses were recovered. Following that upwards spike things have been pretty flat on the aggregate despite still seeing some ups and downs. The correlation between the fluctuations of the different indices is almost certainly pretty high and can be seen just by looking at the graph. For example, the indices mostly dip around April 20th and spike around April 29th even though they are all at different levels relative to their mid-February prices.