By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Note: The index calculation has been changed to reflect movement over the weekend and during Monday. The reference point for the indices is now Friday’s closing price.
Central Europe stock markets were pretty tame over the last two weeks aside from an over the weekend plummet in the Slovakian SAX. All other markets opened the last Monday in June above the previous Friday’s close and either crept higher or slipped a few percent. Falling over two percent, Hungary’s BUX fared the worst of the CEE indices yet again. The Polish WIG 20 bounced back after a poor performance over the previous two weeks and posted a gain of about two percent. The Czech PX rose as well after a couple week slump. The Romanian BET was virtually unchanged. The Slovakian SAX fell as much as twelve percent and finished down a little over six percent. The US S&P 500 led the way by posting a six percent gain while the UK FTSE fell about one percent.
During the first week or so of June markets reached their highest levels since March, but all CEE indices are now below those levels. Even the US S&P and UK FTSE have fallen from where they were four to five weeks ago. The separation between the US and the CEE markets is currently at its most pronounced yet as the CEE indices are averaging losses of over fourteen percent since February while the US is down less than six percent. The Slovakian SAX never fell anywhere near as much as the other indices so taking it out leaves the rest of the stock markets down an average of over sixteen percent.
The last three months have been very positive for the CEE markets with all showing sizable gains. However, the entirety of those returns took place between April and early June. Since then markets have fallen a little in countries like Poland and Czech to actually a fair amount in Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. Poland, Czech, and Romania are very close together in terms of recovery while Hungary is lagging below and Slovakia is still well out in front.