By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Markets tumbled to close the week leaving most of the Central European markets with losses over the last two weeks. Hungary’s BUX fared the worst of the CEE indices. It closed Friday with a loss of almost three percent from two weeks ago after being up as recently as Tuesday. The Polish WIG 20 had a similarly dramatic downturn going from up two percent to down over one and a half percent. The Czech PX fell about one percent. Romania’s market was closed on Friday with the BET finishing up about half a percent but still fell over the last few days of trading. The Slovakian SAX rose late in the week and was flat on Friday marking a gain of just under one percent. The US S&P 500 dove late in the week and closed with a one percent loss. The UK FTSE dropped as well but finished with a gain of about one percent.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. This graph shows the performance of each index with the reference date of February 17th.
The losses late last week are beginning to flatten out the recovery. The US S&P is now 10% off its pre-crisis high after being less than five percent below it in the beginning of June. The CEE markets are very tightly packed, all between 15 and 20 percent below where they were back in mid-February. The UK FTSE is right in there with the CEE indices and has behaved very similarly throughout the outbreak period.
Markets have been shocked a little in the last week as well as a few weeks ago when the S&P fell 6.9% in a single day. This looks like the steadiest downtrend since the recovery began, but markets could still prove to be locked into the uptrend. If that were the case, it wouldn’t be surprising to see markets bounce back in the coming weeks as they did after a weak close to April and beginning of May. Much of market sentiment is still being driven by coronavirus case counts meaning news could have ripple effects across the region and elsewhere.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The first graph shows the previous week’s performance. The remaining graphs show the three-month performance of each of the indices.