By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Release date: July 27, 2020
Two recently developing trends continued over the last two weeks. The separation between the US S&P and the CEE indices continued to grow while the Hungarian BUX continued to fall more and more behind the rest of the CEE markets. The S&P passed the Slovakian SAX for the first time since the pandemic began. Now less than five percent below its pre-outbreak level, the US recovery far surpasses any other index including the UK FTSE. The British index is sitting right on the lower end of the pack of CEE indices which are averaging losses of about sixteen and a half percent.
While Slovakia is still the leader for CEE markets, it has recently fallen more than seven percent and now sits roughly where it was at the end of March. Slovakia’s market hasn’t so much recovered as it simply never fell all that far. Hungary’s market has seen a very steady downturn over the last month and a half and is currently mirroring the UK FTSE fairly closely. The Czech PX, Polish WIG 220, and Romanian BET are flat to slightly negative since early June. The US market has been fairly flat since then as well with the key difference being that the S&P is maintaining its uptrend while the rest of the indices appear to be trending downwards.
Central Europe stock markets were fairly unspectacular during the past two weeks with most losing ground over the last few days. The Polish WIG 20 was briefly up nearly three percent before dropping to a gain of about three quarters of a percent. This was still enough to lead all CEE indices. The Romanian BET posted a slight gain, making it the only other index from the region with a positive return over the two week span. The Hungarian BUX fell just over a percent, and the Slovakian SAX dipped about two percent. The Czech PX was positive for much of the two weeks but plummeted late to a loss of nearly three percent. The US S&P 500 and UK FTSE both performed fairly well with the S&P up a percent and the FTSE up half a percent.