By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Romania’s BET continued its rise and is now solidly above its pre-outbreak level. While that’s still the only index to have fully recovered, the Slovakian SAX had been above that level at different points and is now very close again. The US S&P is closing in on fifteen percent up since February. Meanwhile, the BUX is only about two percent from where it was before the pandemic tanked markets across the world. Since the beginning of November, Hungary’s stock market recovery has been outpacing any other country. It’s now had a thirty-four percent rise in only slightly over three months. The Polish WIG 20 had a similarly strong run for a period but has since dropped for a few weeks in a row. Czech’s PX is about five percent from breaking even and has typically been around the middle of the CEE group. The UK’s FTSE has been significantly underperforming over the last two months and is still down about ten percent since last February. The US market’s strong recovery since mid-April has continued with relatively few disturbances. Romania continues to be the best performing CEE index, though Hungary’s recent few months lead the group. Czech is slowly rising, Slovakia keeps flatlining, and Poland’s market is struggling.
Central European stock markets were mixed over the last two weeks, falling mostly in the first week before moving higher more recently. The Romanian BET continued to push ahead and rose by over two and a half percent. The Czech PX fell as much as three percent before recovering and finishing with a gain of about a percent and a half. The Polish WIG 20 jumped up and down but closed with a small gain. Having opened the two weeks down a couple percent, the BUX slowly rose but still finished slightly negative. On the low end of the CEE markets, the Slovakian SAX dropped about half a percent. Most CEE indices moved similarly to the S&P which returned about half a percent over the two weeks. Trailing the group by a substantial amount, the UK FTSE fell over three percent.