By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
The Central European stock markets continue to average heavy losses since February. The UK FTSE sits right on the lower end of the range of CEE indices. Meanwhile, the US S&P 500 closed on Friday at a new all-time high and has done pretty much nothing but go up since the end of June. The US market sitting above preoutbreak levels at this point is surprising within the context of how closely related it was to the CEE markets for a period. There was a period of steady recovery for all of the markets until sometime around mid-June when US stocks began to surge upwards while the markets in the region turned flat or worse. Now US stocks are at all-time highs while all of the CEE indices and the UK FTSE are trading below three month highs.
The average return since the early stages of the pandemic in Mid-February for CEE markets is roughly a fifteen percent loss. All have rallied substantially from their March lows when some were down over 35% but they’re still down heavily and are mostly lacking any positive uptrends. This is also now the biggest gap yet between US return and average return in CEE stocks since February.
Yet again the US market rises steadily while CEE stocks see very mixed results. The up and down nature of Central European stock markets over the last two weeks is becoming normal. The Romanian BET led the way by gaining over a percent and a half while no others managed to do much. The Polish WIG 20 and Hungarian BUX finished slightly positive while the Slovakian SAX and Czech PX lost about a percent each. The UK FTSE lost about half a percent while the US S&P 500 rose nearly a percent and a half, just shy of the BET’s two week return. The general trend was positive early on but nearly all stocks fell over the second week.