By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
This past week saw a number of days where trading was closed across the Central European region. At week’s end only two of the CEE indices finished lower while the remaining three had moderately strong weeks. The UK FTSE finished slightly down while the US S&P surged up over four percent. The Hungarian BUX and Romanian BET had the weakest performances, losing about four and a half percent each. The Polish WIG 20 gained about half a percent and the Czech PX finished up one and a third percent. The highest performing CEE index was the Slovakian SAX with a gain of just over two percent.
The UK FTSE dropped about a percent while the US S&P finished over four percent higher mainly due to a strong final day of trading on Friday. The only indices across the region to not share in the Friday uptrend were the ones closed to trading on Friday. Taking this into account, there was a strong degree of correlation across the indices with the partial exception of Slovakia.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. This graph shows the performance of each index with the reference date of February 17th.
This graph clearly illustrates how closely the market movements have been throughout the virus and shows how the US S&P 500 has separated from the Central European indices more in the last few days than any time previously. How much of that can be attributed to a number of CEE markets being closed on Friday is unclear. However, the US market is now down fifteen percent from its mid-February level while the Hungarian BUX, the worst case, is still down nearly thirty percent. The Slovakian SAX is off less than ten percent over the same period but never reached the same low as the other indices. The CEE markets are averaging over a twenty percent loss based on these indices. Disregarding the SAX for the moment, the remaining indices are clustered between a 21.5% loss and a 29% loss.