CEE Stock Exchange Report for September 19 – October 04

Updated: Oct 17, 2019

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team

Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index.

Over the past two weeks, there has been a clear divergence in performance between the Romanian BET (yellow) and Slovakian SAX (purple) and the indices of the other CEE countries. Both the Romanian BET and Slovakian SAX increased over this period by 1-2% while the rest fell, largely in sync as a group, by about 5% overall.

There was a small rally in all but the Slovakian SAX and a subsequent decline by the end. In this regard, the general patter of the Romanian BET is more similar to its other CEE neighbor’s than with Slovakia’s SAX. The Slovakian SAX is the only index to show a clear and persistent upward trend throughout.

Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and minus one standard deviation for the same three-month period, respectively.

Compared to its 3-month average, the Slovakian SAX remained comfortably within its historical range. It is clear that while it is the only index with a unique trend during the two weeks, it is not out of what would be considered normal for it in any other way. This suggests that all the other indices were influenced by the same shock during this period.

The patterns are clearly similar. The Hungarian and Czech indices were both driven below their lower bounds and the Polish was close. The Romanian index followed the same pattern but remained above its upper bound during the period suggesting that it is still stronger than in the past.

There is no particular index to watch at the moment. But it will be interesting to see if the indices continue to largely move together, suggesting regional trends are diving the indices, or whether they begin to diverge in the coming weeks.


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