By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The shows only the past one week.
Over the past week, the Slovakian SAX and the Czech PX have once again shown trends distinct from the remaining indices. The three other CEE countries have followed a broadly similar pattern to either the US S&P (dashed line) or the UK FTSE (dotted line). The indices other than the PX ranged from being down about .9% in the case of the FTSE to being up about .75% in the case of the Polish WIG 20. Substantially outperforming all other indices, the Czech index was up 2.29% for the week while the Slovakian SAX was remarkably flat throughout the week and ended slightly down.
The Slovakian SAX had been trending upwards for a few weeks and has continued to exhibit different trading patterns compared to the other indices. There is a reasonably close grouping of the S&P, FTSE, BUX, BET, and WIG 20 with all appearing to move pretty similarly.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The first graph shows the previous week’s performance. The remaining graphs show the three-month performance of each of the indices.
The Czech PX’s 2.29% rise this week comes after a significant drop in the previous week or so. Most of the indices were up in mid-July, dropping and remaining low with varying degrees of volatility throughout August, rising again and peaking in September. The Slovakian SAX follows this pattern to some extent but has otherwise been the only index aside from the Romanian BET to have had a positive three-month gain.
The Romanian index is clearly the outlier here as it has increased throughout the three months and is up about 500 points or roughly 5.5%. This stands out from the region and from both the S&P and FTSE. The FTSE is the most negative over the three months and has not been able to return to its late July level.
It will be interesting to observe if the indices continue to somewhat mirror each other’s movements and if the Romanian index continues not to follow the region's trends at all. In the broader three-month window the PX’s recent gain, while not shared by the rest of the region, looks somewhat similar to the long-term trends across the different markets.