By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index.
The Slovakian SAX exhibits a strange pattern this week largely because the index was closed to trading on Monday, Thursday, and Friday as well as Friday of the previous week. The SAX finished down about a percent for the week. The US S&P closed at a record high for the second Friday in a row after posting about half a percent gain this week. The UK FTSE lost just over one tenth of a percent on the week.
Leading the central European countries for the week, the Hungarian BUX gained around a percent and a half. The Czech PX moved very similarly but was up only about eight tenths percent at the close on Friday. Poland’s WIG 20 also looked very similar to the BUX but finished down four tenths percent.
The Romanian BET gained about half a percent after being down over one and a half percent the previous week. Overall the Central European indices were mostly up for the week with the SAX being the only one to really diverge from the group.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The first graph shows the previous week’s performance. The remaining graphs show the three-month performance of each of the indices.
The three month performance for all indices except Slovakia has turned positive. The Romanian BET still shows the most substantial gains as it has for the last several reports. The BUX has grown significantly in the last one month making it decently positive over the last three months.
Hungary, Czech, Poland, the UK and the US have shared a period of very strong growth since early October. Slovakia and Romania have not shown the same trend. Slovakia has been up and down a lot since August while Romania has been trending solidly upwards over the same period without much fluctuation.
The growth for each of those five countries mentioned above has come after a brief but sharp drop in index value in the preceding week or so. Looking at the last two or three months shows some major up and down swings but a pretty clear general trend of moving slightly upwards. Romania is beginning to look like less of an outlier for the region and compared to the US S&P when looking at the trends more broadly.