By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index.
The US S&P and UK FTSE followed a very similar pattern of being positive early in the week before dropping on Friday. The S&P was closed on Thursday and finished the week up about a quarter of a percent and the FTSE closed down about six tenths of a percent. The Central European indices showed a very broad range of behavior with a gain of over one percent on the high end and a loss of nearly two percent on the low end.
This was the third consecutive week in which the Polish WIG 20 dropped considerably in relation to the other indices. The Hungarian BUX dropped nearly as much as the WIG 20 this week marking the second week in a row in which it was the second worst performing index. The Czech PX rounded out the down indices by losing about four tenths of a percent.
The Slovakian SAX gained about half a percent while the Romanian BET led the way for all indices and posted a gain of about a percent and a quarter. There was relatively little consistency across the region this week in terms of percentage performance, but a couple of patterns did emerge. The PX and BUX followed roughly similar trajectories, as did the BET and SAX, and the clear outlier was the WIG 20.
Source: Own calculations based on data collected from each index. The first graph shows the previous week’s performance. The remaining graphs show the three-month performance of each of the indices.
There was much more movement among the indices during the past week after a pretty flat performance the week before. The WIG 20 continued its recent negative trend which is not shared by any other index. The S&P had another pretty strong performance while the FTSE continued its pattern of volatile spikes and drops. The BET had a very strong week after a recent period of very little movement.
The Slovakian SAX is still the only index with a negative three month return but the Polish WIG 20 could soon turn negative if it does not reverse its current trend. The BUX and BET have been the most consistently positive out of the Central European indices with the PX close behind.
There is starting to be some divergence as to the three month trends across all of the indices. There are two different patterns that seem to be the most prominent. There are the countries that resemble the S&P and the countries that resemble the FTSE. The BUX, BET, and PX look to be following the S&P while the WIG 20 and SAX more closely resemble the FTSE. How or if this pattern continues will be and interesting point to track.