• Rajan Doering

CEE Interest Rate Report for September 4 – September 17

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Michael Szwaja


Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields)

Mixed interest rates movements across the Central European countries were expressed in the above graph. All rates except Slovakia and Hungary dropped over the two weeks. The interest rate in Slovakia was highly erratic during this period with swings of as much as eight percent up and down before returning to its original level at weeks end. Hungary’s three percent rate hike was the only end of period increase. Czech, Poland, and Romania finished with lower rates, all within a few percentage points of each other. Romania’s rate index led the way with the biggest drop and ended five percentage points lower. All CEE countries experienced varying effects on their interest rates at different parts of the weeks with little correlation among them.

HISTORICAL TRENDS


Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period

Czech, Hungary, and Slovakia’s graphs indicate interest rates remained relatively steady over the two-week period. Hungary and Czech finished more than one standard deviation above their three-month average. Poland started the week more than one standard deviation above its rolling average and finished near its average. Slovakia’s interest rate hovered around one standard deviation below its three-month average for the full two-week period. Romania was an outlier for being the only country to fall more than one standard deviation below its rolling mean. All CEE countries continued to exhibit similar interest rate patterns compared to the prior two weeks.

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