By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Jack French
Interest rates dropped for each of the CEE countries. The magnitude of these decreases ranged from substantial in the case of Czechia and Poland to minimal in the case of Romania. Czech’s rate plunged by about twenty five percent early on and has remained pretty level since. Poland had a similar but less severe drop and has the rate trend up since for a rate drop of about thirteen percent over the two week period.. Hungary meanwhile had its interest rate move steadily lower before turning up around May 18th and leveling off at about a seven percent drop. Romania saw the least movement with the rate dropping by less than five percent.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
Czech, Hungary, and Poland continue to have interest rates below their respective three-month average rates. All three rates are sitting more than one standard deviation below their rolling mean. The interest rate in Slovakia stands out as it’s the only one nearly one standard deviation higher than its three-month average. Romania’s rate rounds out the group at almost exactly its three month average. Czech’s rate drop around May 12-13 was clearly the most substantial movement that took place among any of the rates. The others generally trended slightly downwards throughout the period.