Updated: Feb 24, 2020
By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage, Hudson Molinari
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields)
By the end of this time period, there was a decline in the interest rates of all CEE currencies except for Hungary. The greatest variation, in percentage terms, was in Slovakia, and they had the largest decline in interest rates (pink line). Interest rates in Slovakia declined to 0% at the beginning of the period, and then it showed a strengthening of about 25%. At the end of the period, the Slovakian interest rates had declined by about 5%. The Romanian interest rate (yellow line) showed the least variation in percentage terms relative to other regional rates.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
Throughout this time period, many of the returns showed a decline, suggesting an increase in demand for their bonds and increase in prices. Relative to their own historical trends, Romania and Slovakia, Czech kept their interest rates within their historical boundary. The Hungarian interest rate rose below the lower boundary in the middle of the period, but it would later decline. Poland did not begin in their historical range, their interest rate fell, and remained, in their lower historical boundary.