By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Kyle Del Balso
During the April 09 to April 22nd period, there was a decline in the interest rates of all CEE interest rates. Most markets were closed in the earlier part of the period due to the Easter holidays which include Monday, April 13th in Europe.
The greatest percentage variation was in Poland's interest rate which had the largest decline in interest rates (red line) overall. Interest rates in Czechia were constant early on, then fell by about 6% from April 15 onward. Romania was the only economy where interest rates rose again later in the week, ending with a decline of only about 3% despite dipping by 10-15% mid week. At the end of the period, the Hungarian interest rates had declined by about 7%.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
Relative to their own historical trends, Hungary and Romania kept their interest rates within their historical boundary. The Czech interest rate began inside its historical range, but fell below the lower boundary in the middle of the period. Poland and Slovakia did not begin inside their historical boundaries, and both ended the period with a greater deviation from their rolling three-month average, Poland lower and Slovakia higher.