By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Kyle Del Balso
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields)
The past two weeks saw mostly dropping interest rates with the exception of Poland whose rate ticked up over five percent. Slovakia has been dropped from the graph. Romania’s interest rate was rising for the first week or so but ended up falling a few percentage points while Czech’s rate fell early and ended down around ten percent. Hungary’s dropped over fifteen percent in the first day and ticked up slightly before levelling out. All of the interest rate movement occurred by May 8th after which the rates were flat.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Daily EMU convergence criterion bond yields (i.e., central government 10-year bond yields). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
The interest rates in Czech, Hungary, and Poland are all below their respective three-month average interest rates. Czech is more than one standard deviation below their historical rate while the other two are roughly at it. Romania and Slovakia sit above their rolling average with Romania only slightly above, and Slovakia more than one standard deviation above. Hungary’s rate clearly dropped the most here going from just above its three-month average to well below it while the rest of the countries stayed on the same side of their average rates.