CEE Exchange Rate Report for September 7 – September 18

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Michael Szwaja

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

All CEE currencies besides the Czech koruna have seen a change of less than half a percent relative to the Euro over the past two weeks. Furthermore, all CEE currencies experienced a loss in value relative to the Euro. The Hungarian forint, Polish zloty, and Romanian leu depreciated around a quarter of a percent or less. Notably, the Czech koruna saw the greatest change, with a relatively steep decline of around 1%.

The koruna steadily dropped over the two week period with the most significant drop occurring on September 14th. The koruna fell .5% on the 14th, followed by a sharp increase of .25% two days after. The forint experienced a similarly steep drop of .75% on September 16th followed by a small increase. The zloty and leu remained relatively flat across both weeks.

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

The forint and leu started and ended the two weeks well below their historical lower bounds. The koruna started just above its three-month average before dropping below its rolling-mean within the first few days of the period. The zloty saw a small decrease in its value and remained below its rolling average the entire time. All currencies saw a depreciation in value and finished below their respective three-month averages.