By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage
Relative to the Euro, the Polish Zloty continued to strengthen throughout the period. By a smaller amount, the Hungarian Forint also strengthened. The Polish Zloty showed the largest variation from peak to trough. The Polish Zloty, Hungarian Forint, and Czech Koruna depreciated slightly after October 4th. The Zloty and Forint regained some strength by the end of the period while the Koruna continued to depreciate, returning to its original level by the end. The Romanian Leu stayed relatively consistent throughout the period and ended with a small depreciation in value against the Euro.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
During this time period, the Romanian Leu remained below its historical range, suggesting it may still have room to strengthen in the coming days and weeks. The Czech Koruna began and ended within its historical boundary, but depreciated below the country’s lower historical boundary near the end of the period. The Polish Zloty began below its lower boundary, but increased to historical range within the period. The Hungarian Forint was below its lower historical boundary for the majority of the period, but around October 12, seemed to be strengthening back to its historical range.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
Both the Hungarian Forint and Romanian Leu are currencies to watch as they were consistently below their historical levels. The question is whether they will return to their trend levels or have they reached a new trend level.