CEE Exchange Rate Report for May 25 – June 06

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.


The currency trends starting May 25th show a clear incline in the value of all CEE currencies. Around May 29th, all of the exchange rates briefly declined or stagnated, but they continued to increase thereafter. The largest increase was in the Hungarian Forint (green line) which increased nearly two percentage points from peak to trough; this shows a strengthening of the domestic currency. The Polish Zloty (red line) showed the least variation in percentage terms relative to other regional currencies, and it ended with the smallest increase. Therefore, its domestic currency strengthened, but by a comparably less amount than the other countries.

HISTORICAL TRENDS

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.


During this time period, all of the countries had exchange rates outside of their historical ranges. The Czech Koruna began below its lower boundary, and it ended with nearly matching its upper boundary mark. During this period, The Romanian Leu displayed the largest change in percentage terms. The exchange rates for the Romanian Leu began in the lower end of its historical range, and it increased beyond the county’s upper boundary. The Hungarian Forint is the only currency which remained below its historical average throughout the time period.

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