By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage
The trend for the days of June 12 – June 24 was similar to that of the previous week, except the Hungarian Forint showed a clear decline in value. The largest increase, at the end of the period, was in the Polish Zloty (red line); this shows a strengthening of the domestic currency. The Romanian Leu (yellow line) showed the least variation in percentage terms relative to other regional currencies, and it ended with the smallest increase. The largest variation was in the Hungarian Forint (green line) which declined by over one-percentage point.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
During this time period, the Czech Koruna, Polish Zloty, and Romanian Leu ended outside of their historical range. The Czech Koruna began in the upper end of its historical range, and it increased beyond the county’s upper boundary. The exchange rates for the Polish Zloty and the Romanian Leu began, and remained, beyond their countries’ upper boundaries. The large and persistent increases, should they continue to persist, may have an effect on the trade balances of these countries as their products become relatively more expensive in world markets. The Hungarian Forint is the only currency which remained within its historical range throughout the entirety of the time period, ending in the lower end of its historical range.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.