By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
The currency trends starting July 22nd show a clear decline in the value of all CEE currencies. The largest decrease, at the end of the period, was in the Polish Zloty (red line); this shows a weakening of the domestic currency by over 1%. The Romanian Leu (yellow line) ended with the smallest decrease. Overall the trend was of a decrease for regional currency values.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
Relative to their historical trends, the Czech Koruna and the Polish Zloty showed the largest variations in exchange rates throughout the period. The Czech Koruna began above its upper boundary, ending near its lower boundary. Similarly, the Polish Zloty began the period above their upper historical boundary and decreased beyond their lower historical boundary. In each case, the decline represents just over a two standard deviation decline which is a significant change by any measurement.
The Romanian Leu began above its upper boundary, but ended the period within its historical range. Alternately, the Hungarian Forint began within its historical range and decreased below the lower historical boundary.
Again, all currencies declined in value over this period relative to the Euro.