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CEE Exchange Rate Report for July 20– August 01

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Michael Szwaja

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

All CEE currencies significantly strengthened relative to the Euro except for the Romanian Leu which also increased but more moderately. The Czech koruna, Hungarian forint, and Polish zloty appreciation by at least 1.0% by the end of the two-week period. During the week of July 20-27, all three currencies saw significant increases in their value. The Romanian leu displayed a marginal increase in growth of approximately .25%.

It should be noted that the koruna, forint, and zloty experienced a dip in their rates between July 28-30, leading with an abrupt increase near the end of the month. The Leu experienced a marginal dip followed by an increase during that same time span.



Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

All the four listed currencies collectively saw a significant increase in their values ending the period above their historical upper bound. The Forint and Leu had the most significant increases. The Leu started nearly one standard deviation below its three month average and the Forint started right below its rolling three-month average. Both of these currencies soared past above one standard deviation of their three-month averages within days. The Zloty and Koruna both began the period already closer to their upper bounds which they both exceeded by the end of the period.

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