By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.
The currency trends starting July 9th show a clear incline in the value of all CEE currencies. The largest increase, at the end of the period, was in the Polish Zloty (red line); this shows a strengthening of the domestic currency. The Czech Koruna (blue line) ended with the smallest increase. Therefore, its domestic currency strengthened, but by a comparably less amount than the other countries. Throughout the period, however, where the value of CEE currencies lowered; the beginning of the period began with a decline in interest rates, and there was a decline in the middle of the period, around July 17th.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
During this time period, the Czech Koruna, Polish Zloty, and Romanian Leu ended outside of their historical range. The Polish Zloty began within its historical range, and it ended above its upper boundary mark. The exchange rates for the Czech Koruna and the Romanian Leu began, and ended, beyond their county’s upper boundary, but the exchange rates lowered below the upper boundaries within the period. The Hungarian Forint is the only currency which fluctuated around the historical lower boundary; it ended within its historical range.