CEE Exchange Rate Report for July 02 – July 12

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.


The currency trends starting July 2nd show a clear decline in the value of all CEE currencies, except for the Romanian Leu. Around July 4th, all of the exchange rates briefly increased or stagnated, but they continued to decrease thereafter. The largest decrease was in the Hungarian Forint (green line) which decreased about one percentage point from peak to trough; this shows a weakening of the domestic currency. The Romanian Leu (yellow line) showed the least variation in percentage terms relative to other regional currencies, and it was the only country that strengthened considerably and ended consistently with the beginning exchange rates.

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.


During this time period, all of the countries had exchange rates outside of their historical ranges. The Czech Koruna and Polish Zloty began above their upper boundary, and they decreased within their historical range. The Romanian Leu began and ended in the upper boundary, however it increased within the time period to above its upper historical boundary.


All currencies today are within their historical averages except for Hungary; it is the only country still below its own historic mean, making the Hungarian Forint more the outlier than the others.

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