• Rajan Doering

CEE Exchange Rate Report for August 27 – September 8

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Michael Szwaja


Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

In relation to the Euro, the Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, and Romanian Leu all experienced a depreciation in their currencies. The leu saw approximately a .5% decrease. The Koruna and Zloty shared similar experiences with nearly a .75% depreciation at the end the period. Lastly, the Forint lost over 1.5% of its value, the biggest drop the group.

It should be noted that all CEE currencies were appreciating until around September 1st, at which point all currencies experienced a sharp decline and saw little improvement from that point.


Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

All CEE currencies exhibited similar movements over the two-week span. Both the Forint and Leu fell significantly and are now more than one standard deviation below their respective three-month averages. The Koruna and Zloty finished the period near their three-month average after also experiencing a loss in value.

The high correlation between the movements of the currencies is noteworthy. Specifically, the Leu and Forint have shown similar patterns in their depreciation from the month of August leading to September. It will be interesting to see if these counties continue this trend or if other patterns emerge.

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