CEE Exchange Rate Report for August 21 – September 02

By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Niamh Savage

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

The currency trend starting August 21st shows a decrease in the exchange rates of CEE countries. Relative to the Euro, the Romanian Leu strengthened within the period; however, it showed the least variation. Meanwhile the other currencies depreciated in value against the Euro. The Forint showed the largest variation, with about 1.5 percentage points of difference from peak to trough. 

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.

During this time period, the Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, and Polish Zloty ended outside of their historical range. The Hungarian Forint began at the bottom of its historical range, and it decreased below the country’s lower boundary. The exchange rates for the Polish Zloty began, and remained, below their country’s lower boundary. As this large difference continues to persist, the country’s boundaries will likely adjust. The Czech Koruna began within their country’s historical boundary, but it decreased their lower boundary midway through the period. The Romanian Leu began and ended within their historical range.