By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Kyle Del Balso
In relation to the Euro the Polish zloty, Hungarian forint, and Czech koruna all strengthened. Down slightly less than a quarter of a percent, the Romanian leu was pretty flat the entire period but weakened slightly to finish as the only one of the Central European currencies to lose value.
The koruna was strong following April 6th, but has lost ground since its peak on April 14th. The zloty was consistent, gaining value steadily since April 9th. The koruna gained about one and a half percent while the zloty was up just over one percent in relation to the Euro. The forint finished up about three and a half percent with the strongest performance of all the currencies.
Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.
All four of the currencies have shot up in value against the Euro since early March. All of them are more than one standard deviation below their three month average. While the koruna, zloty, and forint have finished the two weeks above their initial starting point, the leu has finished below it.
As each country has implemented different strategies and policies to combat the present situation, it is interesting to note that all the currencies have relatively stayed the same or strengthened over the last two weeks.
Below is a longer horizon for these CEE exchange rates to help put the numbers into context. Note that the presentation below includes exchange rates as domestic per foreign currency so an increase represents a decrease in the value of the domestic currency.