CEE Exchange Rate Analysis for April 30 – May 15

By: Quinnipiac University's Economics Research Team

Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency) and then indexed to be 100 at the start of the period.

The currency trends for the ten-day period starting April 30th show a clear decline in the value of all CEE currencies. The largest decline was in the Polish Zloty (red line) which rose initially but decline nearly one-percentage point peak to trough. The Romanian Leu showed the least variation in percentage terms relative to other regional currencies.


Source: Eurostat and own calculations. Exchange rates are inverted to be EURO per local currency (i.e., an increase indicates a stronger domestic currency). The center line is a rolling three-month average. The upper and lower boundaries are the average plus and average minus one standard deviation, respectively, for the same three-month period.


While the Polish Zloty (red line) displayed the largest change in percentage terms, and relative to its own historical levels, it did not deviate beyond it’s historical lows or highs. The Hungarian Forint (green line) is the only currency which remained outside its historical range throughout the time period, remaining persistently undervalued relative to trend.

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