CEE Currency Index: Historical Analysis October 22-26

By: Economics Research Team

Compared to their rolling three month averages, the Czech koruna was the only currency consistently outside its historical range. The Czech koruna remained relatively flat but at a level higher than its historical trend (i.e., it remained undervalued relative to the past 3 month average). Both the Polish Zloty and Hungarian Forint declines (i.e., those currencies increased in value) throughout the week but mostly remained within their +/- 1 standard deviation bands. The Romanian Leu rose (i.e., lost value) slightly by week’s end, rising just above its historical bands.

Finally, it is worth noting that none of the currencies changed value much during the week. Again, none of them changed a full standard deviation during the week, so any movement was relatively minor.