CEE Central Bank Monitor 1: January 2021 Report
By: The Quinnipiac University Economics Research Team, Kyle Del Balso
Last updated: 3 February 2021
This report includes an update on the
· Czech Republic’s CPI Analyst Survey for January 2021
· Hungary’s Balance of Payments for January 2021
· Poland’s COVID-19 recognition by the Chief Economist of the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World
· Romania’s International Reserves Report for January 2021
· Slovakia’s special announcement for December on real economic performance, inflation and labor markets.
Czech National Bank’s (CNB) - https://www.cnb.cz/en/
Fourteen domestic and three foreign analysts took the CNB monthly survey to reveal that inflation is expected to be slightly higher than the CNB’s inflation target of 2%. Despite the CZSO announcing the lowest consumer price inflation (CPI) increase (2.3%) last December in over three years, the analysts still expect the CPI to be higher than the target range at the start of next year. As for 2021, the analysts believe that weakened aggregate demand and higher prices returning to normal will cause the CPI to further decrease. The second half of the year is predicted to see economic recovery that will raise the CPI at an accelerated rate, offset by the CNB’s rising interest rates.
Click here for further information
Hungary - https://www.mnb.hu/en
Balance of Payments
In the 2021 January Balance of Payments report, the Magyar Nemzeti Bank (MNB) stated the following:
“Hungary’s external balance indicators improved significantly in Q3. The current account balance showed the highest quarterly surplus of the past three years, as result of which the four-quarter value of net lending rose to 2.4 percent of GDP, considerably exceeding the level observed in 2019. The increase strengthened Hungary’s favourable external balance position in the region, while net borrowing remains high in a number of countries”.
For more information in the Balance of Payments report click here.
COVID-19 Response Recognition
The Polish National Bank received high praises on their COVID-19 response efforts in a recently published an interview with Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, the Chief Economist of the Europe and Central Asia Region of the World.
“The policy response of Narodowy Bank Polski has been swift and large and effective in limiting the economic scarring effects of the pandemic. Adequate liquidity provision remains critical in the short-term given the second wave of the pandemic.”
For more of the interview go to the “Obserwator Finansowy” website.
The National Bank of Romania (NBR) recently published its International Reserves for January of 2021. The report says the following:
“On 31 January 2021, the National Bank of Romania’s foreign exchange reserves stood at EUR 37,454 million, compared to EUR 37,379 million on 31 December 2020.
During the month, the following flows were recorded:
EUR 1,380 million worth of inflows representing changes in credit institutions’ foreign currency-denominated required reserves, inflows into the Ministry of Finance’s accounts, inflows into the European Commission’s account and other; EUR 1,305 million worth of outflows representing changes in credit institutions’ foreign currency-denominated required reserves, interest payments and principal repayments on foreign currency public debt and other.
The gold stock remained steady at 103.6 tonnes. However, following the change in the international price of gold, its value amounted to EUR 5,105 million.
On 31 January 2021, Romania’s international reserves (foreign currencies and gold) stood at EUR 42,559 million, compared to EUR 42,517 million on 31 December 2020.
During February 2021, the payments due on the foreign currency-denominated public and publicly guaranteed debt amount to approximately EUR 2,423 million.”